Monday 29 June 2009

Chicago Fed Activity Index Slips In May

Chicago Fed Activity Index Slips In May

By Doug Cameron
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--A slip in production and income data drove a small month-on-month deterioration in a key U.S. business barometer, the Chicago Federal Reserve said Monday.

The bank's National Activity Index, or NAI, weakened to -2.30 in May from -2.27 in April, though the three-month rolling average improved to -2.67, its fourth straight gain.

The index is a compendium of existing and estimated economic data available as of June 26, and the prior-month index had been revised downward as some estimates proved to be overly optimistic.

The faster drop in U.S. industrial production during May - down 1.1% compared with a 0.7% decline in April - was cited by the Fed as the driving force for the weaker overall performance, with utilization in the manufacturing sector slipping to 65% from 65.6% in the prior month.

While the data add to recent Fed commentary about the absence of inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy and the rampant destocking that started at the end of 2008 has largely abated, early cycle indicators such as shipments of basic petrochemicals in the U.S. have slipped in recent weeks.

The three-month NAI of -2.67 compared with -2.73 in the prior month as just over half of its 85 components improved from April to May and more than a third made positive contributions.

Employment-related indicators also weakened during May, though the consumption and housing category made a modest recovery as housing starts increased, with sales, orders and inventories also moving close to positive territory.

-By Doug Cameron, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-750-4135; doug.cameron@dowjones.com

-0


(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2009 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

ICE US Equity & Currency Closing Estimated Volumes For Jun 29

ICE US Equity & Currency Closing Estimated Volumes For Jun 29
Estimated Volume Report for 29-Jun-2009

Total Floor Floor Total
Futures Calls Puts Options
FINEX
FINEX
Aus. Dollar - N.Z. Dollar 3 0 0 0
Australian $-Canadian $ 6 0 0 0
U.S. Dollar - Aus. Dollar 0 0 0 0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX 5,016 28 31 59
Euro Index 0 0 0 0
Euro-Japanese Yen 233 0 0 0
Euro - US $ 18 0 0 0
Euro-Canadian Dollar 9 0 0 0
Euro - Czech Koruna 5 0 0 0
Euro - Sterling 97 0 0 0
Pound Sterling-N Z.Dollar 0 0 0 0
Euro-Hungarian Forint 27 0 0 0
Canadian $-Japanese Yen 1 0 0 0
Aus $-US$ 0 0 0 0
Euro-Japanese Yen 0 0 0 0
Euro- US$ mil 0 0 0 0
Euro-Canadian Dollar 0 0 0 0
Euro-British Pound 0 0 0 0
US $ - Swedish Krona 0 0 0 0
US $ - Swiss Franc 0 0 0 0
British Pound-US$ 6 0 0 0
Euro-Swedish Krona 0 0 0 0
Euro-Swiss Franc 0 0 0 0
US $ - Japanese Yen 0 0 0 0
US $ - Canadian $ 0 0 0 0
Swedish Krona-Japanese Yen 0 0 0 0
US Dollar/Swedish Krona 137 0 0 0
Norwegian Krone-Jap. Yen 0 0 0 0
Small US$-Swiss Franc 0 0 0 0
Sm.British Pound-US$ 70 0 0 0
Norwegian/Swedish 14 0 0 0
US Dollar/Norwegian Krone 173 0 0 0
Euro-Norwegian Krone 5 0 0 0
Pound Sterling - Canadian$ 5 0 0 0
Pound -Norwegian Krone 0 0 0 0
Pound Sterling-Sw. Krona 0 0 0 0
Pound Sterling-S.A. Rand 0 0 0 0
Pound-Australian $ 0 0 0 0
Euro-Australian Dollar 2 0 0 0
Euro-SWEDISH KRONA 42 0 0 0
Euro - Swiss Franc 566 0 0 0
Small US$-Japanese Yen 0 0 0 0
British Pound-Swiss Franc 4 0 0 0
Small US $-Canadian $ 0 0 0 0
British Pound-Japanese Yen 486 0 0 0
US Dollar/Czech Koruna 0 0 0 0
US $/Hungarian Forint 17 0 0 0
Australian $-Japanese Yen 6 0 0 0
Euro-South African Rand 0 0 0 0
New Zealand $-Japanese Yen 16 0 0 0
U.S. Dollar-S.African Rand 515 0 0 0
U.S. Dollar - N. Z. Dollar 45 0 0 0
Swiss Franc- Japanese Yen 2 0 0 0

INDEXES
Continuous Commodity Index 2 0 0 0
RJ CRB Index 0 0 0 0
Russell 1000 Growth Index 0 0 0 0
Russell 1000 0 0 0 0
Russell 1000 Mini 473 0 0 0
Russell 2000 Mini Index 118,381 26 62 671
Russell 2000 Index 0 0 0 0
Russell 1000 Value 0 0 0 0
NYSE Comp Index 0 0 0 0


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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2009 22:29 ET (02:29 GMT)

KCBT Value Line Stock Index Close - Jun 29

KCBT Value Line Stock Index Close - Jun 29


Contract Open High Low Prev Settle Chg

Sep '09 1317.00 1317.00 1317.00 1317.00 1317.00 0.00
Dec '09 1317.00 1317.00 1317.00 1317.00 1317.00 0.00
Mar '10 1317.00 1317.00 1317.00 1317.00 1317.00 0.00

NOTE: It is possible for a settlement price to fall outside the daily high
and low due to an exchange's specific rules on how a settlement price
is determined.



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June 29, 2009 22:22 ET (02:22 GMT)

US Morning Briefing

Overnight News

Asia:

JGB’s rose on Monday drawing support from the recent strength in shorter maturities, but activity was slow with many investors staying on the sidelines before a slew of key economic data and a sale of 10 year bonds this week. At 0623 BST JBG’s were trading 137.83 (+0.17). In equities, the Nikkei fell 1% with battery maker GS Yuasa ending a recent surge after a brokerage downgrade and Daiwa Securities Group tumbling after announcing a USD 2.5bln share sale. (RTRS)

Japanese industrial output jumped 5.9% in May vs. exp. 7.0%, matching April’s biggest gain in half a century, as car and electronics production pulled out of a deep slump but the outlook remains murky with the effects of government stimulus expected to wear off. (RTRS)

PBOC’s Zhou said China Q2 economy looks better than Q1and that China can achieve 8% economic growth target. (BBG)

Global:

The USD received a boost in the late Asian session and into the European entrance after PBOC’s Zhou said that FX reserve policy is always quite stable-consistent, targeting safety and return with no sudden changes. The UAE Central Bank governor has also said this morning that it is difficult to think about a global reserve currency other than the USD. The latest comments have helped outweigh reports that China and Brazil are working on a currency arrangement to allow exporters and importers to settle deals in their local currencies bypassing the USD, with calls from Russia for the world to become less dependent on the USD largely ignored. (RTRS)

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said today that there is a significant risk that stimulus leads only to a temporary growth pick-up and then long stagnation. (BBG)

US:

Obama adviser not ready to back a second stimulus (AP)
A senior White House adviser said Sunday the economic stimulus package has not yet "broken the back of the recession" but set aside calls for a second massive spending bill.

Senior White House official Romer upbeat on US economy (FT)
Romer said the US economy will feel a substantial boost from the Obama administrations emergency spending package over the next few months, though warned against tightening monetary and fiscal policy before recovery is well established.


Bonds

European Government Bonds:

Bund futures have traded into slight positive territory this morning, dragged higher by the strength in gilt futures. However, gains have been capped by improving economic data with EU business climate indicator for June coming in at its highest since January with economic confidence at its highest since November.

  • EU Business Climate Indicator (Jun) M/M -2.97 vs. Exp. -3.00 (Prev. -3.17, Rev. to -3.11)

  • Eurozone Economic Confidence (Jun) M/M 73.3 vs. Exp. 71.0 (Prev. 69.3, Rev. to 70.2). (BBG)

Noted speakers from the weekend included ECB’s Draghi who said policymakers should continue pushing to make financial markets more resilient as there were still signs of fragility, with ECB’s Quaden commenting that deflation is almost ruled out in Europe. (RTRS) EU's Almunia has also said that fiscal stimulus must continue to be applied and shouldn't rule out extra stimulus. (BBG)


Maturity251030
Level1.3392.473.3684.233
Change (bps)1.797-0.311-1.886-0.34


UK Gilts:

NYSE LIFFE gilt futures have out performed EGB’s ahead of the BoE’s 32nd reverse auction today. Price action has also been aided by various downbeat press articles including reports that UK public pension fund liabilities are spiralling way above those of the US and Canada, reaching the equivalent of 85% of GDP. Elsewhere, the latest UK mortgage approvals for the month of May came in M/M at 43.4K vs. Exp. 46.0K (Prev. 43.2K). Finally, heading into month-end worth noting the Sterling iBoxx Sovereign index is an exceptionally large +0.33yrs.

Other stories of note include an article from the Sunday Telegraph, which wrote ‘S&P warns that Britain’s national debt will quadruple to peaks only ever seen in the wake of WW2 unless the Government takes drastic steps to address the pensions and ageing crisis’. The warning comes a month after S&P put Britain’s debt on negative outlook.


Maturity251030
Level1.1562.763.6284.352
Change (bps)0.775-3.018-5.629-6.326


Equities

UK & European equities opened lower but have been on a gradual up tick led by a bounce in commodity prices.
The likes of Total and BP have led the gains in their respective indexes with WTI crude futures trading back towards the USD 70.00 handle buoyed by on-going unrest in the Niger Delta and a weakening USD. Telecom stocks have also performed well thus far after news that UK’s Vodafone maybe interested in bidding for Deutsche Telekom’s T-Mobile unit.


IndexDAXCACFTSEEUROSTOXX
Level4824.683166.244259.092413.82
Change(ticks)1.011.170.431.00


FX

The USD received a boost in the late Asian session and into the European entrance after PBOC’s Zhou said that FX reserve policy is always quite stable-consistent, targeting safety and return with no sudden changes. The UAE Central Bank governor has also said this morning that it is difficult to think about a global reserve currency other than the USD. The latest comments have helped outweigh reports that China and Brazil are working on a currency arrangement to allow exporters and importers to settle deals in their local currencies bypassing the USD, with calls from Russia for the world to become less dependent on the USD largely ignored. (RTRS)

CurrencyEURUSDGBPUSDUSDJPY
Level1.40661.656595.35
Change(pips)0.00100.00400.1650


Commodities

WTI crude oil futures moved higher today in the European session, as the USD index weakened on returning investor risk appetite and after a Nigerian rebel group attacked Shell’s oil platform.

Royal Dutch Shell said it shut its Estuary oil field in Nigeria’s southern delta region after militant attack. According to Bache Commodities the latest Nigerian attacks will take WTI up to USD 70.

According to Algerian oil minister, markets were oversupplied and oil demand continued to remain weak due to poor economic conditions in US and Europe. He also said that it’s very unlikely for OPEC to increase productions as oil stock levels still remained high.


CommodityWTI NymexOTC Spot Gold
Level69.89941.6
Change (USD)0.732.00


Looking ahead:

Economic releases


CDTBST


Prev.
7301330USChicago Fed Nat. Activity IndexM/M May-2.06
9301530USDallas Fed Manufacturing ActivityM/M Jun-21.50%


Speakers


8301430USFed’s Rosengren

Auctions

8451445UKBOE’s Reverse Auction GBP 3.5bln Mar. 2020 – Jun. 2032
All prices taken at 12:55 BST.

Last Call for Monetization?

In the past three weeks there have been several indications that the Federal Reserve is reconsidering the extent and perhaps necessity of its extraordinary liquidity provisions to the Treasury market. How far have the chairman and governors pulled back from their quantitative easing policy?

On June 3rd Chairman Bernanke commented in Congressional testimony that federal deficits cannot continue forever. In fact the deficits can continue, but the Fed’s $300 billion Treasury purchase plan will end unless additional funding is authorized by the Fed governors. At this past week’s FOMC meeting the board specifically did not authorize further Treasury purchases. The Fed is also letting one of its emergency liquidity programs expire and curtailing two others. None of these developments is an overt change in policy, but they are assurances that the chairman and the board view these liquidity measures as crisis expedients and not as permanent institutions of monetary and economic policy.

It is easy to forget that the Fed policy of direct support for credit markets was an emergency response to the crisis of confidence that overwhelmed the financial system last fall. Fed purchases of various securities supplied liquidity to non-functioning markets; they were not intended to be permanent. The Fed said as much at the time, though in the ensuing months market focus shifted from the programs themselves to the lack of a clear strategy for absorbing the excess money supply from the economy.

In March the market reaction to the financial crisis was at its peak. Treasury prices had been driven to historical highs by sustained panic buying of US Treasuries. Treasury interest rates and rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages were at record lows. But even though mortgages rates were extraordinarily low the Fed judged that the reeling economy could not tolerate the surge in interest rates that would occur if Treasury prices began to fall. The governors may have suspected that the Treasury market would begin to drive prices lower and rates higher on its own as credit conditions normalized

In that context the Fed announced its $300 billion Treasury purchase in the FOMC statement of March 18th. The governors may also have been worried about the impact of the federal deficit on the bond market whose reaction was then an unknown quantity. But despite the Fed backstop the Treasury market fell relentlessly after March 18 with the 10-year rate rising more than 1.5%. More dangerously the dollar index fell 10% from March 18th to June 2nd. For the currency markets the Fed Treasury program has had one meaning, monetization of the Federal debt. Judging by the subsequent rise in Treasury rates the Fed governors may have known that the $300 million committed would be insufficient to hold the line on Treasury rates. But that relatively minor amount had a deadly effect on the dollar. The merest suspicion that monetization of US debt was possible sent the dollar into a three month swoon. The inflation that would result from a rapidly falling dollar and the effect of a collapsing dollar on the Treasury market itself could undo much of the economic and rate stabilization that the Fed was striving to achieve.

The Fed concern about the Treasury market was for the economic effect of higher interest rates on the US economy, particularly on the housing market thought by many to be at the heart of the economic collapse. But higher Treasury yields and mortgage rates have not, at least so far, choked whatever positive change in the economy has occurred since March. 30-year fixed mortgages have gained more than a point but the housing market has stabilized; new home and existing home sales in May were both in the center of the range they have exhibited since January.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index has revived since last December. It gained 0.9% in January, 0.4% in February, 0.3% in May, was flat in April and lost 0.3% in March. The half year prior to January had six negative months in a row. Non Farm Payrolls were substantially improved in May at -345,000, with the three month moving average (-500,000) having gained almost 200,000 since March (-691,000). Consumer sentiment numbers have moved up steadily since the beginning of the quarter. The economic situation that prompted the Fed quantitative easing has returned to more normal territory.

The Treasury market has also stabilized in the past two weeks. After reaching 4.00% the yield on the 10-year note had declined to 3.54% on the Friday close. The government Treasury auctions, a record $104 billion in the past week alone, have been subscribed at higher rates than normal. The bond markets are not demanding substantially higher rates on American debt, despite the vast continuing supply of US issuance.

The key to the extension of the Fed Treasury program is the attitude of the credit markets. It is relatively simple. If bond purchasers do not demand higher yields for US debt, then whatever the long term effect of the ballooning US debt and inflation the government will not be forced to pay higher rates. If Treasury prices are not falling the Fed will not have to support the market with further Treasury purchases and the currency markets will not be stampeded away from the dollar by monetization.

Foreign central banks have been unusually critical of the US government’s fiscal and debt policy. The Chinese were so again this week. But what matters are not the banker’s words or their musings about a world reserve currency. What matters is action. As long as the Chinese, Russians, Japanese and private investors continue to buy US Treasuries, the Fed will not have to choose between supporting the US economy and supporting the dollar.

It is a delicate balance but so far the Fed has, with the cooperation of the Treasury markets, kept the pointer right in the middle of the scale. The Fed has managed to mitigate the scare it threw into the currency markets in March with its recent statements and actions.

There are still a huge amount of Treasuries to be sold over the next three months and the economic situation is still dangerous. But the Fed view as reflected in the FOMC statement, no more quantitative easing and a slight though significant withdrawal from the credit markets may be the right and artful balance between keeping down US interest rates and avoiding a dollar panic in the currency markets.

Forex: GPB/USD fails to break above 1.6580, returns to 1.6555

Dollar weakness against European currencies eased in the last hour. Greenback was able to pullback from intra-day lows against CHF, EUR and GBP. GBP/USD was unable to break above 1.6580 after reaching that level and setting a fresh intra-day high. Currently the pair is at 1.6555/60 which is 0.34% above today’s opening price. The pair moved in an uptrend during the day but failed to break key resistance levels.

Against the Euro, Cable is rising for the day but lost part of early gains. EUR/GBP is fighting at the 0.8500 zone. The pair found support at 0.8475 rebounding to 0.8510. To the Yen, the Pound got stronger and is back above 159.00 for the first time since June 19. The pair has risen more than 250 pips so far today

WORLD FOREX: China Helps Dlr; Risk Hits Euro, Data Hit Pound

   By Nicholas Hastings
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Reassurances from China about its reserve policy left the dollar higher but the euro has been hit in Europe Monday by a fresh rise in risk aversion.

Market sentiment is being overshadowed by a series of key data and events this week that is encouraging investors to pull back from taking risks.

The issue of foreign exchange diversification out of the dollar remained at the top of market agenda when China once again called Friday for a reserve currency like the SDR's issued by the International Monetary Fund.

However, Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan calmed down any speculation by saying Sunday that "our foreign exchange reserve policy is always quite stable."

This helped to boost the dollar which had ended last week on a weak note as investors feared a major shift by central banks.

The dollar was also being helped by a rise in risk aversion as currency players take fright at the myriad risks posed by key economic data and events this week.

At the top of this list is the release of June U.S. non-farm payrolls, which are expected to show a decline similar to the 345,000 fall registered in May. If so, this might give the impression that the worst of the economic contraction is over but that the labor market remains weak.

But, as currency strategists at The Royal Bank of Scotland point out, the week is also littered with other market risks -the approach of end-quarter, Japan's latest Tankan survey, China's latest PMI, the start of the earnings season and a European Central Bank meeting.

All this, the RBS strategists said, has the "nervous Nellys" cutting out and the central banks only too happy to see range trading continue.

See chart at

http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/2320

The reduced appetite for risk was apparent in the decline in equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.4% on Friday, followed by a 1.0% fall in the Nikkei Monday. However, European markets were starting in positive territory with gains of as much as 0.7%.

By 0911 GMT, the dollar had risen to Y95.46 from Y95.20 late on Friday in New York, according to EBS. The euro was virtually flatat Y133.98 fromY133.98, with the yen finding some support from Japanese industrial production data that showed a 5.9% rise in May, the same as in April. Some analysts said this suggests that Japan could still be one of the first major economies to return to growth.

The euro is also down at $1.4021 from $1.4070.

The dollar is up at CHF1.0892 from CHF1.0819 while the pound has fallen to $1.6505 from $1.6523 after the Bank of England's latest household borrowing figures suggest that the recovery in housing market activity has stalled. The number of approvals for new house purchases was unchanged in May from April at 43,000.

Vicky Redwood, U.K. economist with Capital Economics, said this is "consistent with house prices falling at double-digit annual rates."

In Eastern Europe, the euro was down at HUF276.64 from HUF276.86. But, it is also up at PLN4.5103 from PLN4.5046 and at CZK26.038 from CZK25.998.

 

-By Nicholas Hastings, Dow Jones Newswires; 44 20 7842 9493; nick.hastings@dowjones.com

 

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CORRECT:Frustration With UK Banks Mounts As Lending Stays Low

CORRECT:Frustration With UK Banks Mounts As Lending Stays Low

("=Frustration With UK Banks Mounts As Lending Stays Low," published at 1151 GMT, misstated the name of the British Bankers' Association. The correct version follows:)

By Paul Hannon

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- British banks haven't increased their lending significantly in recent months, despite injections of capital from the government and GBP125 billion in fresh money from the Bank of England.

Economists worry that the reluctance, or inability, of banks to lend more to businesses and households threatens to derail the hoped-for economic recovery.

Political leaders, frustrated that bank lending remains tight and by signs that some banks are again offering big bonuses, see an escalating public-policy issue in the year running up to the next general election, set for June 2010 at the latest.

Monday brought more evidence of the subdued level of bank lending, when the BOE published figures that showed mortgage loans in May rose by just GBP324 million, the smallest amount since records began in April 1993. Total new lending to consumers was GBP624 million, down from GBP1.1 billion in April.

BOE figures also showed that M4 lending to businesses fell by GBP2.0 billion from April, and was 2.1% down on the same month in 2008, a steeper fall than the 1.4% decline recorded in April.

Despite fresh money into the financial system through purchases of gilts and other bonds -- a process known as quantitative easing -- lending to businesses is falling and to households remains very subdued.

That may persuade members of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee that a further increase in the size of its bond purchases is needed.

"This is worrying for recovery prospects and reinforces the belief that the Bank of England may feel compelled to further extend its quantitative easing program, despite recent improved economic data and survey evidence," said Howard Archer, an economist at Global Insight.

The MPC voted in May to increase its bond purchases to GBP125 billion from GBP75 billion, extending the deadline for completion to the end of August from the end of June.

Quantitative easing isn't the only intiative U.K. policy makers have taken to boost bank lending. Prime Minister Gordon Brown's Labour government has injected fresh capital into two of the U.K.'s largest banking groups, issued guarantees for bank borrowing on the international bond markets, and is providing insurance against losses on bad assets.

In return, the government has said it extracted pledges form the banks to increase lending, and said it is convinced those promises will be kept. But there are signs that its patience is beginning to wear thin.

According to an advance copy of a speech to the British Bankers' Association late Monday, Business Secretary Peter Mandelson will remind the banks that they must meet their obligations to increase lending and will criticize the BBA for failing to provide the in-depth information on bank lending that authorities have sought.

Unless resolved, the dispute could end in nationalization.

According to a report published Monday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, full state ownership of those banks in which it already holds a majority stake would help, while the closure of other banks should be considered.

"It is essential that the supply of new lending is not held back any longer by banks with insufficient capital to meet losses," the OECD said.

The government isn't alone in being irked by the behavior of banks.

The head of the U.K.'s main bank regulator last week said he was worried by signs that banks are once again taking big risks in trading on their own account, and offering big salaries to hire successful traders from rivals.

"There is now very aggressive hiring going on in the trading activities of investment banks," said Adair Turner, chairman of the Financial Services Authority. "We do need significant changes to remuneration...particularly of investment banks."

The regulator said that some investment banking businesses - including structured finance and credit derivatives - had grown "beyond their socially useful size."

"As long as that's occurring...some people will end up being paid large amounts of money for things that are not socially useful," he said.

The government is clearly aware that popular dissatisfaction is mounting.

"In a decade or more of exposure to businesses on a pretty much a day-to-day basis, I have never felt such a sense of distrust and anger between the financial sector and the rest of the economy," Mandelson will tell bankers late Monday. "People are furious about risk taking and astronomical pay. People are asking how financial services appeared to move so easily from being an asset to a liability for the economy."

-Paul Hannon, Dow Jones Newswires, +44 20 7842 9491, paul.hannon@dowjones.com

(Laurence Norman and Nicholas Winning contributed to this story)

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=kHtLd6gpPN1bOjDlkdPjzA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2009 12:56 ET (16:56 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Italy PM:G8 To Signal Worst Of Global Econ Crisis Has Passed

Italy PM:G8 To Signal Worst Of Global Econ Crisis Has Passed

ROME (Dow Jones)--Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi, who is due to host a meeting of leaders from the Group of Eight leading economies July 8, said Monday the G8 would signal that the worst of the global economic crisis has passed.

"The main point that must come out from this G8 is one of confidence that the maximum strength of the global crisis" is over, Berlusconi told a press conference in Naples presenting the upcoming meeting.

Following the meeting of G8 leaders July 8, expected to focus on the global economy, the gathering to be held near the earthquake-hit city of L'Aquila until July 10 will be enlarged to more than 25 countries overall.

-By Luca Di Leo, Dow Jones Newswires; +39 06 697 66921; luca.dileo@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=kHtLd6gpPN1bOjDlkdPjzA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2009 12:46 ET (16:46 GMT)

Midwest Mfg Index Tumbles To 16-Yr Low On Severe Auto Slump

Midwest Mfg Index Tumbles To 16-Yr Low On Severe Auto Slump

By Howard Packowitz

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Burdened by the severely slumping auto sector, manufacturing activity in the midwestern U.S. during May fell to its lowest level in almost 16 years, according to data released Monday from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

The Midwest Manufacturing Index dropped 3.1% in May to a seasonally-adjusted 78.2, the lowest reading since September 1993.

The Chicago Fed also revised downward its April index to 80.7, from an original reading of 81.8.

Compared with year-ago levels, regional output plunged 24.4% in May versus a 15.2% year-over-year decline nationwide.

The May data also showed the region did not fare well versus the Federal Reserve Board's industrial production index, which was 1.0% lower in May.

The midwestern index revealed decreases in three of the four major indicators, with auto sector production showing the steepest decline on a monthly and annual basis.

Michigan, which is part of the five-state region, has been especially hard hit as the major auto makers based in that state struggle for survival.

Regional auto output dropped 10.7% in May on the heels of a 3.0% decline in April. It plunged 39.2% compared to May 2008. The latest auto sector reading of 44.7 was an 18-year bottom, according to Chicago Fed data.

"The troubles of the Detroit Three auto companies seem to be affecting midwestern production much more than that of other areas because of their operations' concentration in the Midwest," the Chicago Fed said in a release on Monday.

Nationwide, auto production fell 2.6% in May, compared to the previous month. For the year, auto output dropped 22%, the Chicago Fed reported.

The data are compiled by calculating the number of hours worked in the five-state region of Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Indiana.

The June Midwest Manufacturing Index is scheduled to be released July 27.

-By Howard Packowitz, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-750-4132; howard.packowitz@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=kHtLd6gpPN1bOjDlkdPjzA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2009 12:05 ET (16:05 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

UPDATE: UK PM Brown Announces New Jobs Program For Under-25s

UPDATE: UK PM Brown Announces New Jobs Program For Under-25s

(Adds details, quotes)

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced Monday new plans to cushion the impact of the recession, including extra money to fight youth unemployment and build affordable housing.

A year into a severe recession and less than 12 months from the next general election, Brown outlined a series of proposals, which also included planned public services reforms and changes to the political system.

Brown said the new jobs program, which will start January 2010, would guarantee a job or training for those under 25 who have been out of work for a year. Those who don't accept the guaranteed job or training will have their welfare benefits cut.

He said this GBP1 billion program, which will be financed from funds set aside in the budget, will provide 100,000 jobs for young people.

Brown said that a series of government job programs announced since the recession began will save some 500,000 jobs. He didn't say how that calculation was made.

"There is a real choice for our country...creating jobs or doing nothing. Driving growth forward or letting the recession take its course," he said.

The prime minister also said he would more than treble funding for affordable housing over the next two years to GBP2.1 billion from GBP600 million. The money will be brought forward from future years spending plans.

Brown said the extra spending will deliver 20,000 new affordable homes, creating 45,000 jobs in the construction sector.

Brown announced various other reforms, including greater choice in public services and further reforms of the upper house of parliament.

He also confirmed the creation of a GBP150 million Innovation Fund that will be able to lever up to GBP1 billion of funding for key sectors, like life sciences and low carbon technologies.

Brown reiterated that the new economic programs would be paid for by reprioritizing its policies, not by adding to existing spending levels or debt.

Brown's Labour Party must hold an election by June 2010. Labour has been far behind in the polls and Brown faced challenges to his leadership in early June.

However, the prime minister has shored up his position recently and has put the opposition Conservative Party somewhat on the defensive on the issue of public spending in recent days.

-By Laurence Norman, Dow Jones Newswires; 44-207-842-9270; laurence.norman@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=kHtLd6gpPN1bOjDlkdPjzA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2009 11:56 ET (15:56 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Italy 2009 Machine Orders To Rise EUR6B After Tax Breaks

Italy 2009 Machine Orders To Rise EUR6B After Tax Breaks

MILAN (Dow Jones)--The Italian machine tools' sector will see orders rise by some EUR6.0 billion this year due to tax breaks passed by the government along with other measures to help lift the economy out of recession.

"This means a 30% increase on the 2009 forecast," Alfredo Mariotti, head of the machine tools manufacturers' board, or Federmacchine, told Dow Jones Newswires Monday.

The Italian government Friday approved tax breaks for companies aimed at helping to counter the worst economic recession in decades, including lower taxes for firms that reinvest any profit in buying new machinery.

The new stimulus package also includes a tax bonus to companies that hold off from cutting jobs, or hire temporary laid-off people, in a bid to limit the rise in unemployment.

"We estimate that at least 20% of our associates will stop using temporary layoff schemes," said Mariotti.

The government of Silvio Berlusconi, which is burdened by Europe's largest public debt compared with the size of its economy, faces a tough balancing act to kick-start the economy.

While tax breaks have the potential to lift business investments, if they are too large they could put pressure on Italy's ability to finance its debt.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development last week cut its 2009 forecast for Italian gross domestic product to a contraction of 5.5%, following a 1% decline last year, which would mark the deepest recession since World War II.

-By Luca Casiraghi, Dow Jones Newswires; +39 02 5821 9907; luca.casiraghi@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=kHtLd6gpPN1bOjDlkdPjzA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2009 11:34 ET (15:34 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

UK PM Brown Announces New Jobs Program For Under-25s

UK PM Brown Announces New Jobs Program For Under-25s

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced new initiatives Monday to cushion the impact of the recession, rolling out a new jobs program for younger workers and tripling funding for affordable housing.

Brown said the new jobs program, which will start next January, would guarantee a job or training for those under 25 who have been out of work for a year.

Brown said that a series of government jobs programs will save some 500,000 jobs, although he didn't say how that calculation was made.

The prime minister said he would triple funding for affordable housing over the next two years to GBP2.1 billion from GBP600 million.

Brown also announced various other reforms, including greater choice in public services and further reforms of the upper house of parliament.

Brown reiterated that the new economic programs would be paid for by reprioritizing its policies, not by adding to spending levels or debt.

-By Laurence Norman, Dow Jones Newswires; 44-207-842-9270; laurence.norman@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=kHtLd6gpPN1bOjDlkdPjzA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2009 11:09 ET (15:09 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

2nd UPDATE:BEFORE THE BELL: US Stk Futures Turn Up; Eyes On Madoff

2nd UPDATE:BEFORE THE BELL: US Stk Futures Turn Up; Eyes On Madoff

(Updates to add analyst comments, latest available prices)

By Simon Kennedy

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stock-market futures were modestly higher Monday but were off their earlier highs at the start of a holiday-shortened week, with Enterprise and Teppco announcing a merger and attention also on the sentencing of Bernard Madoff for his multibillion-dollar fraud.

"As the second quarter is all but completed, attention has finally turned to the reality that stock prices simply are not moving higher in the absence of confirming economic and profit data," said Dan Greenhaus, an analyst at Miller Tabak.

S&P 500 futures rose 2.7 points to 916.60 and Nasdaq 100 futures added 3.5 points to 1480.20. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 22 points.

There's little significant data due Monday, though the rest of the week will see a string of releases. They include the June employment report, which will be announced earlier than usual on Thursday, as U.S. markets will be closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

"Fortunately, or unfortunately, this week brings a series of important economic data points which will go a long way to either confirming the market's expectations or throwing a big bucket of cold water in the face of many market participants. This culminates in Thursday's payroll report," said Greenhaus.

In New York, Madoff is scheduled to learn his fate for stealing at least $13 billion from thousands of unknowing victims, with the 71-year-old likely to spend the rest of his life in jail.

Oil prices moved higher, with the August-dated light-crude contract adding 58 cents to $69.74 a barrel. The move came after oil prices fell more than $1 in the previous session on concern that a high U.S. savings rate could imply a slow recovery and weak demand.

Also Monday the International Energy Agency revised down its six-year demand forecast.

The euro fell 0.1% against the dollar at $1.4047, while the greenback gained 0.3% against the yen to 95.44 yen.

"The major indices may struggle for a bit of direction today as we lack any real meaningful data on both the economic and corporate calendars," said Ian Griffiths, a dealer at CMC Markets.

"With the recent rally slowing considerably and the markets looking toppy, investors will be hoping to break the two week losing streak and get some gains on the board. However with unemployment set to move into double figures on Thursday we may have to build up some gains before what could be some disappointing numbers," he added.

In corporate news, Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD), Teppco Partners LP (TPP) and Enterprise GP Holdings L.P. (EPE) announced that they had agreed to form a publicly-traded energy partnership with an enterprise value of more than $26 billion.

Towers, Perrin, Forster & Crosby and Watson Wyatt Worldwide Inc. (WW) said Sunday they have agreed to merge in a $3.5 billion deal that will created a global professional-services and human-resources group.

Mining giant Anglo American PLC (AAUK) is in talks to sell a major investment stake to Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (ACH), according to a U.K. media report, though at least one executive is separately quoted as saying no deal is planned.

Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) plans to sell its digital advertising agency Razorfish, according to a Financial Times report, with France's Publicis Groupe (PUB.FR) a possible buyer.

Among companies due to report earnings Monday, H&R Block Inc. (HRB) is expected to post a fiscal fourth-quarter profit of $2.06 a share.

In Europe, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 index rose 0.5%, while in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed down around 1%.

-Simon Kennedy; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=kHtLd6gpPN1bOjDlkdPjzA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2009 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

US Cash Hogs Pre-Open: Mostly Flat With A Few Weak Tones

US Cash Hogs Pre-Open: Mostly Flat With A Few Weak Tones

By Curt Thacker

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

KANSAS CITY (Dow Jones)--Cash hog prices in the Midwest direct markets Monday are called mostly steady but there are a few weaker tones seen as well on expected slow demand.

Most of the pork plants will operate regular shifts Monday through Thursday but a few may reduce their slaughter rates by an hour or so due to sluggish pork movement, according to analysts and livestock dealers. That could result in daily kills of between 405,000 to 410,000 head. On Friday, the slaughter could be trimmed by nearly half as a result of several plants being closed and some others operating reduced hours in observance of the Independence Day holiday on Saturday.

Pork sales at the wholesale level this week could be listless since retailers may want to wait until after the holiday before ordering more product. Typically, retail sales of pork and beef tend to turn slower following Independence day during the heat of the summer. Cold cuts, hot dogs and some grilling cuts continue to sell well during July and early August.

Livestock dealers said average hog weights likely declined last week as a result of the heat and high humidity. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will report Wednesday the average weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa/southern Minnesota for last week.

USDA reported the pork cutout value Friday at $55.28, up $0.42 from Thursday.

The Dow Jones Newswires packer margin index for Friday was at minus $8.84 per head compared with minus $9.52 the previous day.

The terminal markets are called mostly steady in light tests with top prices on a live basis expected to be from $35.50 to $38.

The projected Chicago Mercantile Exchange two-day lean hog index for Thursday was 59.03 cents per pound, up 0.09 cent from the previous day.

-By Curt Thacker, Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5178; curt.thacker@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=kHtLd6gpPN1bOjDlkdPjzA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2009 08:32 ET (12:32 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

PRECIOUS METALS: NY Gold Seen Up 50c, Silver Down 6 Cents

PRECIOUS METALS: NY Gold Seen Up 50c, Silver Down 6 Cents

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

August gold futures are expected to open floor trading in New York around 50 cents an ounce higher Monday, based on electronic activity ahead of the pit session at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. September silver is expected to be down 6 cents an ounce.

Spot gold inched marginally higher in overseas trade, helped as the euro bounced from its weakest levels against the dollar, London-based analysts said. However, neither exchange-traded fund nor traditional physical buyers are showing much appetite for gold at the moment, leaving the metal largely range-bound.

At 8 a.m. EDT, spot gold was trading up $2.45 to $941.40.

In other markets that have the potential to impact metals in the short term, the euro is up slightly to $1.4061 from $1.4058 late Friday afternoon. In screen trading ahead of the pit open, the September S&P 500 futures are up 3.80 points to 917.70. August crude oil is up 80 cents to $69.96 a barrel in overnight activity.

U.S. economic reports Monday include the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT), the Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook survey at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) and the Chicago Fed's Midwest manufacturing index at noon EDT (1600 GMT).

Other major reports this week include the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and Conference Board's consumer-confidence index on Tuesday, then the ADP employment report, construction spending, pending-home sales and Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index on Wednesday. Thursday will bring weekly jobless claims, the monthly employment report and factory orders.

In New York Friday, gold futures managed a small gain, boosted by the softer tone in the U.S. dollar but backing down from the session highs on profit-taking ahead of the weekend. August gold rose $1.50 to settle at $941 an ounce, while September silver closed 12.4 cents higher at $14.156.

Comex gold warehouse stocks were up 9,716 ounces at 8,724,957 ounces Friday, while silver stocks were down 67,977 ounces at 118,485,484 ounces.

-By Allen Sykora, Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765; allen.sykora@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=kHtLd6gpPN1bOjDlkdPjzA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2009 08:04 ET (12:04 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

BASE METALS: Comex Copper Seen 1 Cent Higher At Pit Open

BASE METALS: Comex Copper Seen 1 Cent Higher At Pit Open

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

September copper futures are expected to open floor trading around 1 cent a pound higher Monday, based on electronic activity ahead of the pit session on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Copper was range-bound in London trading, although it got a slight lift from a 2,950-metric-ton decline in London Metal Exchange warehouse stocks to 267,300.

In other markets that have the potential to impact metals in the short term, the euro is up slightly to $1.4066 from $1.4058 late Friday afternoon. In screen trading ahead of the pit open, the September S&P 500 futures are up 3.40 points to 917.30. August crude oil is up 71 cents to $69.87 a barrel in overnight activity.

U.S. economic reports Monday include the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT), the Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook survey at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) and the Chicago Fed's Midwest manufacturing index at noon EDT (1600 GMT).

Other major reports this week include the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and Conference Board's consumer-confidence index on Tuesday, then the ADP employment report, construction spending, pending-home sales and Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index on Wednesday. Thursday will bring weekly jobless claims, the monthly employment report and factory orders.

In New York Friday, copper fell marginally in thin trading as participants squared positions before the weekend and booked some profits as equities faltered. September copper lost 0.7 cent to settle at $2.3090 a pound.

The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Friday afternoon, were up 199 short tons at 59,795 short tons.

-By Allen Sykora, Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765; allen.sykora@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=kHtLd6gpPN1bOjDlkdPjzA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2009 07:50 ET (11:50 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

UPDATE:BEFORE THE BELL: US Stk Futures Turn Up; Eyes On Madoff

UPDATE:BEFORE THE BELL: US Stk Futures Turn Up; Eyes On Madoff

(Updates to add Enterprise Pdts/Teppco deal, analyst comment, latest available prices)

By Simon Kennedy

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stock-market futures turned modestly higher Monday at the start of a holiday-shortened week, with Enterprise and Teppco announcing a merger and attention also on the sentencing of Bernard Madoff for his multibillion-dollar fraud.

S&P 500 futures rose 3.8 points to 917.70 and Nasdaq 100 futures added 8 points to 1484.80. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 29 points.

U.S. stocks closed a choppy week on another mixed noted Friday, with Palm Inc. (PALM) and Accenture Ltd. (ACN)(among the gainers after their earnings exceeded expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 34 points on Friday, the S&P 500 shed 1.36 points and the Nasdaq Composite gained 8.68 points.

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.3% for its second decline in a row, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%.

There's little significant data due Monday, though the rest of the week will see a string of releases. They include the June employment report, which will be announced earlier than usual on Thursday, as U.S. markets will be closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

Oil prices moved higher, with the August-dated light-crude contract adding 71 cents to $69.87 a barrel. The move came after oil prices fell more than $1 in the previous session on concern that a high U.S. savings rate could imply a slow recovery and weak demand.

Also Monday the International Energy Agency revised down its six-year demand forecast.

The euro fell 0.1% against the dollar at $1.4047, while the greenback gained 0.3% against the yen to 95.44 yen.

"The major indices may struggle for a bit of direction today as we lack any real meaningful data on both the economic and corporate calendars," said Ian Griffiths, a dealer at CMC Markets.

"With the recent rally slowing considerably and the markets looking toppy, investors will be hoping to break the two week losing streak and get some gains on the board. However with unemployment set to move into double figures on Thursday we may have to build up some gains before what could be some disappointing numbers," he added.

In corporate news, Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD), Teppco Partners LP (TPP) and Enterprise GP Holdings L.P. (EPE) announced that they had agreed to form a publicly-traded energy partnership with an enterprise value of more than $26 billion.

Towers, Perrin, Forster & Crosby and Watson Wyatt Worldwide Inc. (WW) said Sunday they have agreed to merge in a $3.5 billion deal that will created a global professional-services and human-resources group.

Mining giant Anglo American PLC (AAUK) is in talks to sell a major investment stake to Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (ACH), according to a U.K. media report, though at least one executive is separately quoted as saying no deal is planned.

Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) plans to sell its digital advertising agency Razorfish, according to a Financial Times report, with France's Publicis Groupe (PUB.FR) a possible buyer.

Among companies due to report earnings Monday, H&R Block Inc. (HRB) is expected to post a fiscal fourth-quarter profit of $2.06 a share.

In Europe, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 index rose 0.5%, while in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed down around 1%.

-Simon Kennedy; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=kHtLd6gpPN1bOjDlkdPjzA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2009 07:42 ET (11:42 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Forex: European markets advance; EUR and GBP in recovery path

European stocks are recovering its initial losses on concern on economic recovery and all of its markets are rising so far today. Oil is trading close to 69.25 dollars by barrel, Zhou Xiaochuan says that China will grew 8% or more in 2009. Euro and Pound are rising in recovery path, USD/JPY is fighting for the 95.50 level.

EuroStoxx 50 is rising 0.32% so far today, DAX XETRA posts 0.46% gains, CAC 40 advances 0.48%, AEX rises 0.51% and the IBEX 35 is reaching 0.65% increases so far today. On the other hand, Nikkei Index has closed its Monday session with 0.95% decline.

Zhou Xiaochuan, from PBOC, has affirmed that China 2Q economy has been far better than the previous quarter and the PBOC expects to improve more in 3Q and 4Q. According to Zhou, China will grew 8% or more in 2009

GBP/USD has recovered all of it initial losses after finding support at 1.6470 and rising to post 1.6549 as fresh intra-day high. EUR/USD has rebounded at 1.3995 to rise to levels close to 1.4050.

Anna Coulling, analyst at Master The Markets, comments that traders have been moving to sell the Euro in a thin market Monday: "Looking ahead to later today, the US dollar may continue to move in the 94.80 to 97.00 USD/JPY trading range once again, before Thursday's U.S. June non farm payrolls index, a closely watched indicator of the health of the U.S. economy, which may finally inject some much needed direction into this lack lustre pair. Ahead of the data, yen selling pressure from Japanese mutual funds for portfolio adjustment may offset exporters' yen buying to close accounts at the end of June."

Forex: GBP/USD posts 1.6549 as fresh intra-day high and recovers its losses

The Sterling recovery against the Greenback from 1.6430 as reached 1.6549 as fresh intra-day high and the GBP/USD has posted daily gains in the European session after rising around 85 pips in the last hour. Currently the pair is trading around 1.6510/20, 0.05% above today's opening price.

George Clement, analyst at Swiss e Trade AG, comments: "Cable for once is moving quite in tandem to the euro, hovering above support levels and currently trading at 1.6490 in a slight retreat. We see the 1.6460 support holding today and then more upmoves, to the 1.6550 level."

Forex: European markets advance; EUR and GBP in recovery path

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - European stocks are recovering its initial losses on concern on economic recovery and all of its markets are rising so far today. Oil is trading close to 69.25 dollars by barrel, Zhou Xiaochuan says that China will grew 8% or more in 2009. Euro and Pound are rising in recovery path, USD/JPY is fighting for the 95.50 level.

EuroStoxx 50 is rising 0.32% so far today, DAX XETRA posts 0.46% gains, CAC 40 advances 0.48%, AEX rises 0.51% and the IBEX 35 is reaching 0.65% increases so far today. On the other hand, Nikkei Index has closed its Monday session with 0.95% decline.

Zhou Xiaochuan, from PBOC, has affirmed that China 2Q economy has been far better than the previous quarter and the PBOC expects to improve more in 3Q and 4Q. According to Zhou, China will grew 8% or more in 2009

GBP/USD has recovered all of it initial losses after finding support at 1.6470 and rising to post 1.6549 as fresh intra-day high. EUR/USD has rebounded at 1.3995 to rise to levels close to 1.4050.

Anna Coulling, analyst at Master The Markets, comments that traders have been moving to sell the Euro in a thin market Monday: "Looking ahead to later today, the US dollar may continue to move in the 94.80 to 97.00 USD/JPY trading range once again, before Thursday's U.S. June non farm payrolls index, a closely watched indicator of the health of the U.S. economy, which may finally inject some much needed direction into this lack lustre pair. Ahead of the data, yen selling pressure from Japanese mutual funds for portfolio adjustment may offset exporters' yen buying to close accounts at the end of June."

USD/JPY to test 94.00 area in July - Mizuho

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 09:39 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Dollar's decline against the Yen from 98.89 in early June has continued during the month to break 97.30, 96.10 and 95.60 supports in the last 3 weeks to trade close to 95.50 level. Nicole Elliott, Senior Technical Analyst at Mizuho Corporate banks, expects the USD/JPY to fall further toward 94.00 zone, breaking the June low at 94.45, reached on June the 1st.

Currently the pair is trading around 95.40/50, after trading in a small range between 95.30 and 95.60 during the Asian session.

Elliott recommends to go short at 95.45 in USD/JPY: "Comment: The potential ‘head-and-shoulders’ within which prices have been working since March is still there as prices consolidate below the lower edge of the relatively large Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and above the ‘neckline’ and 26-week moving average. Maybe this week, certainly some time in July, we favour a test of the pivotal 94.00 area (and an eventual break below here). Strategy: Sell at 95.45, adding to 96.00; stop well above 96.65. First target 95.00/94.88 then 94.00."

Forex: EUR/USD rises above 1.4000 after the EU consumer confidence good data

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 09:10 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - EUR/USD has jumped above 1.4000 level on better than expected EU June consumer confidence data, after trading in a small range between 1.3990 and 1.4000 in the previous minutes.

Currently the pair is trading around 1.4010/20, 0.40% below today's opening price.

According to Anna Coulling, analyst at Master and Markets, comments that Dollar is higher on PBOC comments: "The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen and euro in Asia Monday, after comments from China Sunday suggested that the country would not change its policy of keeping the dollar as its key foreign reserve currency for now. The markets took the remarks as a sign that the dollar will continue to keep its role as a major reserve currency, prompting short term investors and hedge funds to buy the U.S. dollar, as a sign of renewed confidence."

Forex: EUR/USD finds support at 1.3980, back above 1.4020

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 08:00 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - After falling around 60 pips from intra-day high at 1.4043 in the Asian session, EUR/USD has found support at 1.3980, intra-day low, in the early European morning. The pair is trading back above 1.4020, easing some of its initial losses.

EUR/USD is declining 0.35% so far today from 1.4069 opening price to the current 1.4015/25.

Tomas Cedavicius, analyst at Forex-Trends.com, comments: "EURUSD has touched the resistance line at 1.4111 price level, but it just bounced back and now it is going for support line, soon or later we are going to see a break out from this prices range. And when that happens we are going to take an action depending which line is broken, for now waiting is still an option with a possibility taking selling choice after breaking the support line at 1.3934."

Forex: GBP/USD rejects 1.6547 and falls below 1.6500

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 08:58 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Cable's rebounding from 1.6430 has been capped at 1.6547, intra-day high, and the pair has been rejected to levels below 1.6500, posting daily losses again. Currently the pair is trading around 1.6490/1.6500, 0.20% below today's opening price.

Carol Harmer, analyst at Charmer Charts.com, comments: Cable has backed away from 1.6565 and looking like its going to test the uptrend line at 1.6410. If this support fails, sellers will come into the market and they will try for the base of this pattern at 1.6240/1.6180."

Forex: USD/JPY tests 95.60 resistance again

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 08:21 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - After trading in a small range between 95.30 and 95.60 during the Asian session, USD/JPY is testing the 95.60 resistance again in the early European morning. The pair is recovering from 95.04, Friday low in the American session. Currently USD/JPY is trading around 95.50/60, 0.40% above today's opening price action.

Last week, USD/JPY fell 1.05% from 96.22 Monday opening price to close at 95.19 on Friday's session. The pair reached 96.57 as intra-week high and 94.88 as 4-week low.

Nicole Elliott, analyst at Mizuho Corporate Bank, comments: "The potential ‘head-and-shoulders’ within which prices have been working since March is still there as prices consolidate below the lower edge of the relatively large Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and above the ‘neckline’ and 26-week moving average. Maybe this week, certainly some time in July, we favour a test of the pivotal 94.00 area (and an eventual break below here)."

Forex: USD/CHF rises 70% so far today to test 1.0900 level

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 08:29 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Dollar is rising against the Swissy today's session recovering from 1.0797 last Friday's low to post today 1.0898 as fresh intra-day high. USD/CHF has risen 0.70% so far today from opening price at 1.0832 to the current 1.0880/90.

According to Tim Salem, FXstreet.com collaborator, USD/CHF is slightly bullish: "Neutral to slightly Bullish Hourly Sentiment is Seen as Price works through and Accumulating Range of 1.0798 Daily Static Support to 1.0913 Daily Static Resistance, where if Seen, a potential 20SMA/200SMA Bullish Cross may be seen as RSI Slope and Readings at “56” looks for Price towards the 1.0948 Daily Static Resistance Level. Continuation sees the 1.1005 Resistance Level for a potential Hourly Triple-Top Formation if the Level is Held. Depreciation sees 1.0798 Daily Static Support through to 1.0763 and 1.0706 where RSI Readings and Slope will be Oversold, as Price reaches for Basing Behavior at the 1.0650’s Area."

Forex trends: greenback inches up versus majors

The US dollar climbed against its major counterparts, euro, pound, franc and yen during Monday's early Asian trading.

Thus, greenback soared to 95.61 against the Japanese unit, compared to 95.25 at Friday’s close. On the upside, USD/JPY rally would touch 96.1 as the next likely target.

Dollar also advanced versus the European majors.

Thus buck rose to 1.4004 against the euro early morning in Asia, with 1.389 expected as the near term resistance point. Late Friday in New York EUR/USD rally was quoted as much as 1.4070.

The dollar also edged up against pound and franc, hitting the highs of 1.6454 and 1.0881, respectively, that may be compared to 1.6542 and 1.0862 at Friday’s close. 1.623 was seen as the near term support for GBP/USD rally, while 1.094 was expected as the next upside target for USD/CHF pair.

DATA SNAP: Spain June Flash HCPI -1% On Yr Vs -0.9% In May

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 07:00 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

DATA SNAP: Spain June Flash HCPI -1% On Yr Vs -0.9% In May


By Jonathan House
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES




MADRID (Dow Jones)--The decline in Spain's consumer prices continued to accelerate in June, preliminary data from Spain's National Statistics Institute, or INE, showed Monday.

In a statement, the INE said Spain's European Union-harmonized index of consumer prices fell 1% on the year in June after falling 0.9% in May.

A Dow Jones Newswires survey of three economists had forecast a 1.1% annual fall in June consumer prices.

In March, Spain became the euro zone's first country to report an annual decline in consumer prices during the global economic recession.

Price growth has eased sharply across the trading area, allowing the European Central Bank to slash interest rates to support the economy.

European Union statistics agency Eurostat will publish an estimate of June euro-zone inflation Tuesday and the European Central Bank will hold its monthly rate-setting meeting Thursday.


INE Web site: http://www.ine.es




-By Jonathan House, Dow Jones Newswires; +34 91 395 8121; jonathan.house@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=kHtLd6gpPN1bOjDlkdPjzA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2009 03:00 ET (07:00 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

DATA SNAP: UK House Prices Steady In June; Outlook Uncertain

Sun, Jun 28 2009, 23:01 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

DATA SNAP: UK House Prices Steady In June; Outlook Uncertain


By Ilona Billington
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES




LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.K. house prices were unchanged for the second straight month in June as demand for properties is rising more quickly than the number of available properties for sale, a survey by Hometrack showed Monday.

The company, which specializes in providing research and data on the residential property market, said house prices were flat on the month in June and fell just 8.7% on the year.

That compares with a flat monthly reading in May and a 9.6% decline in annual terms, Hometrack said.

"A lack of supply and rising demand have combined to prop up house prices in the last 2 months," said Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack.

Hometrack said since the beginning of the year the volume of buyers has risen 36%, while the number of properties for sale has risen just 6.4%. However, with the economy remaining in recession and unemployment set to rise in the coming months, a full recovery of the housing market isn't a certainty.

"The jury is still out as to whether the momentum gained over the spring and early summer can be maintained for the rest of the year," Donnell said.

Hometrack data show that sales are up 80% since the beginning of the year, with sales volumes rising 4.6% in June alone.

And, the average time it takes to sell a property has fallen yet again to 9.4 weeks in June, down from 9.9 weeks in May and 10.4 in April.

The percentage of the asking price being achieved by sellers also continued to improve in June, rising to 91% from 90.3% in May and 89.6 in April.

However, while these numbers are in line with other house price surveys reporting rising mortgage approvals and some monthly increases in average prices, the economic outlook and still tight credit conditions mean that any recovery in the U.K. housing market will be a long and slow process.

"The two key risks for the market are either a renewed weakening in demand or a surge in the volume of housing for sale," Donnell said. "Given the uncertain outlook for the economy it is the demand side where the greatest risk lies as many would-be buyers continue to remain cautious or are unable to obtain sufficient equity or finance to access the market," he said.

By region Hometrack reported that prices were flat in nine of the 10 regions covered in the survey. Price rose 0.1% on the month in June in Greater London.


Web site: www.hometrack.co.uk




-By Ilona Billington, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 7 842 9452; ilona.billington@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=NZOKLoOiijsIbDeg3M3gbQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 28, 2009 19:01 ET (23:01 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Japan May Indus Output +5.9% On Mo; Mkt Expected +6.9%

Sun, Jun 28 2009, 23:57 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

Japan May Indus Output +5.9% On Mo; Mkt Expected +6.9%

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japan's industrial output rose in May for the third straight month, increasing 5.9% over April, the government said Monday, further fueling expectations for a strong rebound in manufacturing in the April-June quarter.

The rise in this key gauge of Japan's economy was smaller than the 6.9% increase expected on average by economists surveyed by Dow Jones and the Nikkei. It matched the revised 5.9% rise in April.

A 24.8% rise in transport equipment and a 10.5% increase in electronic components and devices led the overall rise, according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

Inventories fell 0.6% in May, compared with a revised 2.7% drop in April, as firms made further progress clearing stock.

In another positive sign, shipments were up 4.5% compared with a revised 3.0% rise in April.


Web site:
http://www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics/index.html




-By Andrew Monahan, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-6895-7553; andrew.monahan@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=NZOKLoOiijsIbDeg3M3gbQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 28, 2009 19:57 ET (23:57 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Forex: GBP/USD falls below 1.6450 and posts 1.6430 as intra-day low

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 06:54 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - After rejecting at 1.6500 level in the early Asian session, Cable has fallen around 70 pips to break down the 1.6450 support and post 1.6430 as fresh intra-day low in the early European morning. Currently the pair is trading around 1.6445/55, 0.45% below today's opening price action.

Tim Salem, FXstreet.com collaborator, comments: "Neutral to Corrective Bullishness is Seen, as Hourly Sentiment with Price finds a slight Reversal of the 20SMA/200SMA Hourly Bullish Cross with the 20SMA providing Dynamic Resistance Confluence at the 1.6482 Daily Pivot. Depreciation sees Dynamic and Static Support at 1.6408 Confluence with the Hourly 200SMA, and 1.6362. A potential Hourly Triple-Bottom Formation may be Seen if Price is Seen and Held at the 1.6230’s Area of Support. A Break of the 20SMA Dynamic Resistance sees the 1.6517 and 1.6557 Resistance Levels, where Clearance through to 1.6603 brings an Hourly Double-Top into View in the Near-Term. Support levels: 1.6451 1.6408 1.6362 1.6329 1.6288. Resistance levels: 1.6517 1.6557 1.6603 1.6632 1.6658."

Forex: EUR/USD breaks 1.4000 support

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 06:49 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - EUR/USD has broken 1.4000 key support in the early European morning after the Yesterday PBOC comments. During the Asian session, pair has been trading in a small range between 1.4000/30, but in the last hour EUR/USD has fallen around 50 pips from 1.4032 to post intra-day low at 1.3983, continuing its declining from 1.4118, June 26 high.

Today, the pair is falling 0.50% from opening price action to the current 1.3990/1.4000.

Last week, EUR/USD rose 0.90% from Monday opening price at 1.3950 to close 1.4068 on Friday. Pair reached 1.4138 as intra-week high and 1.3826 as intra-week low.

PBOC comments about its policy on keeping Dollar as foreign reserve currency for now has eased concern on Greenback, putting higher. Zhou Xiaochuan said: "our forex reserve policy is always quite stable... there are not any sudden changes"

Forex: Asian markets decline; Dollar rises on PBOC comments

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 06:35 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Stocks in Asia are declining today's Monday session after opening higher on concern in financial shares and energies slide. Today's Japanese data was good, but less than expected in industrial production but worse than expectation on Retail trades. Dollar is rising on PBOC comments that suggest the Greenback will be its key foreign reserve.

MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8 percent, Nikkei index is declining 1,21 so far today and Oil fell towards $68 a barrel. Industrial Production rose 2.9% between April and May, less than 7.0% market expectations but same as previous month, on yearly basis, data has posted a 29.5% declines in May, worse than 28.8% expected by market.

Japanese retail trade has lost 2.8% in May respected April, worse than 2.6% expected by market. Large Retailer's Sales posted 6.5% decreases in May, worse than expected too.

"There are not any sudden changes in our forex reserve policy": PBOC

PBOC comments about its policy on keeping Dollar as foreign reserve currency for now has eased concern on Greenback, putting higher. Zhou Xiaochuan said: "our forex reserve policy is always quite stable... there are not any sudden changes"

USD/JPY has reached 95.60 as intra-day high in the Asian session, USD/CHF is rising 0.80% so far today from opening price to levels close to 1.0900.

GBP/USD is posting 0.60% declines so far today to break below 1.6450 as well as EUR/USD, which has fallen to levels below 1.4000 during the Asian session.

Yen remains under selling pressure

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 04:28 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) – USD/JPY Current Price 95.22. Pair remains under selling pressure thus 95.00 zone probes strong and continues holding the downside.

“Indicators are slightly bullish both in 1 and 4 hours charts, thus the upside seems limited for the next hours, as 20 SMA remains above actual price and quite bearish,” said Valeria Bednarik, collaborator at FXstreet.com.

Support levels: 95.26 94.80 94.45. Resistance levels: 95.50 96.00 96.30