Monday, 26 July 2010

European Session News Summary

Euro Zone industrial new orders

Euro-Zone seasonally adjusted industrial new orders was released today, showing a rise in the month of May by 3.8%, compared with the previous 0.9% and the expected -0.1%, while on the yearly scale the index rose by 22.7%, compared with the previous 22.1 and the expected 20.0 percent.

UK's June Retail Sales better than expected

UK released its Advanced June Retail Sales excluding Auto fuel index showing a rise on the monthly scale by 1.0 percent, compared with the previous revised 0.7% and the expected 0.6%, while on the yearly scale the index rose by 3.1 percent, compared with the previous revised 2.9% and the expected 2.4%.

Moreover, Retail Sales including auto fuel rose in the month of June by 0.7%, compared with the previous revised 0.8% and the expected 0.5% while on the yearly scale the index rose by 1.3%, compared with the previous revised 1.7% and the expected 1.0 percent.

Euro zone PMI manufacturing and services beat estimates

Euro zone PMI manufacturing rose to 56.5 from 55.6, while estimates referred to 55.1. Services surged to 56.0 from 55.5, exceeding projections of 55.0. Accordingly, the composite index edged up to 56.7 compared with the preceding 56.0 and median forecasts of 55.5.

French manufacturing expansion ease, while services resume growth

French PMI manufacturing eased its expansion in July to 53.7 from 54.8, while services sustained growth to 61.3 from 60.8, as reported by the preliminary reading. Analysts expected manufacturing and services to reach to 54.1 and 60.0 respectively.

German manufacturing and services resume expansion

German PMI manufacturing resumed expansion in July to 61.2 compared with the prior 58.4 and median estimates of 58.0. Services also expanded to 57.3 from 54.8, beating estimates of 54.5

Euro Zone sovereign debt is slowing growth


European Market Update: Better European data prompts short covering rallies in equities and currencies


Economic Data

- (FR) France Jul Business Confidence: 98 v 94e; Consumer Confidence: -39 v -40e; Own-Company Production Outlook: -9 v -7e; Production Outlook Indicator: -2 v -6e

- (FR) France Jul Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 53.7 v 54.1e; PMI Services: 61.3 v 60.0e

- (NV) Netherlands Jun Unemployment Rate: 5.5% v 5.6% prior

- (DE) Denmark Jul Consumer Confidence: +4.1 v -1.5 prior

- (GE) Germany Jul Advance PMI Manufacturing: 61.2 v 58.0e; PMI Services: 57.3 v 54.5e

- (TT) Taiwan Jun Unemployment Rate: 5.2% v 5.2%e

- (EU) Euro Zone July Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 56.5 v 55.1e; PMI Services: 56.0 v 55.0e; PMI Composite: 56.7 v 55.5e

- (UK) Jun Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: 1.0% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.4%e

- (UK) Jun Retail Sales with Auto Fuel M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.0%e

- (HK) Hong Kong Jun CPI - Composite Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.7%e

- (EU) Euro Zone May Industrial New Orders M/M: +3.8% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 22.7% v 20.0%e

- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Jul 16th: $469.3B v $467.3B prior

Fixed income:

- (HU) Hungary sells HUF in 12-month Bills; avg yield 5.75% v 5.43% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.0x prior


SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Notes/Observations:

- Major European PMI readings generally better than forecasts; UK retail sales beats estimates; Better European economic data for July as concern over the sovereign-debt crisis eased coupled with an increase in global trade spurred its exports.

- Fed's Bernanke Senate testimony dampens all optimism on US economy.

- Brazil Central Bank raise SELIC Target by 50bps; less than the 75bps hike expected

- Chatter circulating that EU stress test results being released earlier than the planned 16:00 GMT On Friday, July 23rd

- EU Trade Chief: Greece and Spain bonds good investment for China.

- IMF: Euro Zone sovereign debt is slowing growth.

Equities

- As of 5:45am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index +1.7% at 2,684 ; DAX Index +1.4% at 6,075; CAC-40 Index +1.6% at 3,550 and FTSE 100 Index +0.9% at 5,260

Industrials

- ABB [ABBN.SZ] Reports Q2 Net $623M v $545Me, EBIT $975M v $850Me Rev $7.6B v $7.5Be

- Faurecia [EO.FR] reported H1 Net €101.9M v loss €364.6M y/y, Rev €6.8B v €4.4B y/y

- Syngenta [SYNN.SZ] reported H1 Net profit $1.3B (ex charges) v $1.4B y/y, Rev $6.7B v $6.7B y/y

- Technip [TEC.FR] reported Q2 Net €106M v €102Me, Rev €1.49B v €1.5Be; on track to deliver 2010 objectives

- Volvo [VOLVB.SW] reported Q2 Net SEK3.15B v SEK2.17Be, Rev SEK68.8B v SEK65Be

- SSAB AB [SSABA.SW] reported Op profit SEK708M v SEK697Me, Rev SEK10.9B v SEK11.1Be

- Outokumpu [OUT1V.FH] reported Q2 Net Profit €44M v €43Me; Sales €1.11B v €1.1Be

Financials

- Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] reported Q2 Net CHF1.6B v CHF1.4Be, Rev CHF8.4B v CHF7.7Be

- Swedbank [SWEDA.SW] reported Q2 Net SEK1.6B v SEK651Me, Net interest income SEK3.8B v SEK4.1Be

- Banco Sabadell [SAB.SP] reported Q2 Net €125.2M v €108Me, H1 Net Interest Income €765M v €747.4Me

Materials

- Lonza Group [LONN.SZ] reported H1 Net CHF 135M v CHF113Me, Rev CHF1.3B v CHF 1.4Be

- Ferrexpo [FXPO.UK] cancelled $500M bond sale, citing cost of refinancing as too high

Healthcare

- Biomerieux [BIM.FR] reported H1 Rev €651M v €638Me. Guided FY10 Rev up 6% y/y (had previously guided +7%)

- Roche [ROG.SZ] reported H1 Net CHF5.7 v CHF5.6Be, Rev CHF24.6B v CHF25Be; confirms outlook

- Nicox [COX.FR] received letter from FDA stating that painkiller Naproxcinod was NOT approved

Telecom

- Mobistar [MOBB.BE] reported H1 Net €132.4M, EBITDA €281.6M v €282Me, Rev €818.8M v €815Me; Raises FY10 outlook

Consumer discretionary

- Remy Cointreau [RCO.FR] reported Rev €171M v €138M y/y

- Praktiker [PRA.GE] reported Q2 Net €15.1M v €29Me y/y, Rev €1.04B v €1.0Be; Cuts guidance for FY10 in the low single digit range, below 2009 (implies below €3.7B) (prior in line with 2009 levels)

- Kingfisher [KGF.UK] provided Q2 preclose update: Like-for-like sales -0.8%; Total sales +0.3%; Consumer spending remains under pressure, notably in the UK

- Pearson [PSON.UK] acquired Sistema Educacional Brasileiro's learning system for $497M in cash; to be accretive to EPS in 2011

- Stora Enso reported Q2 Net €159.1M v €159Me, Rev €2.7B v €2.4Be

Energy

- Scottish & Southern Energy [SSE.UK] provided interim management statement: Several months marked by low production of renewable energy; Still on course to grow dividend as forecasted

Technology

-Autonomy [AU.UK] reported Q2 Net $54.2M v $50.9M y/y, Rev $221M v $195M y/y

Speakers:

- Hungary PM spokesperson: Country to negotiate with EU regarding next year's budget

- Japan ruling party: Reiterates prior view that govt should maintain new JGB sales at ¥44.3T during the next fiscal year

- EU's Rehn says trusts stress tests will give clear picture of state of European banking system

- China Central Bank Vice Gov Hu Xiaolian: Will adjust currency rate with reference to trade balance. He reiterated the view that China's managed float exchange rate system to focus on currency basket and not one currency

- EU Regulator CEBS: Not aware of any change to stress test release schedule

- World Trade Organization (WTO) director Lamy: China is adhering to the organization's rules

- China President Hu: Reiterates to maintain 'moderately loose' monetary and 'proactive' fiscal policy in H2

- Currencies: The USD tried to maintain its recent ranges against the European pairs as Fed Chairman Bernanke's comments late Wednesday to the Senate panel seemed already reflected in recent run of soft US economic data in recent weeks. The dollar's tones turned a bit sour as the major European PMI data exceeded expectations. The UK retail sales data was also above forecasts. The EUR/USD moved off its pre European lows of 1.2740 to test 1.2850 aided by Eastern European names seen buying the pair. The better series of data prompted a short covering squeeze in European equities and the 'rise' in risk appetite took its toll on the greenback in the session.

Geopolitical:

- In British politics, a recent poll conducted by YouGov placed the Liberal Democrats to its lowest approval rating under Deputy Prime Minister Clegg at 13% against the time of the campaign election at 31%.

- Germany's proposed atomic energy tax may run into problems with European law; the levy would bring in an estimated €3.2B as part of the country's budget consolidation

In the Papers:

- Bank of England member Dale, in an interview with the Independent, stated that British growth and inflation outlook deteriorated in the past couple of months, and that growth is softening, though still sees inflation above target at year end.

- Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard commented on safe haven demand for the Swiss Franc and the losses disclosed by the Swiss National Bank, and referencing analysts at HSBC, if there is a US slowdown, then everyone will buy Swiss Francs. He further states that now that Japan's debt is about 200% of GDP, the CHF has displaced the yen as the ultimate safe haven.

- Also in the Telegraph, following the recent Bank of England minutes some economists believe the central bank could restart its quantitative easing measures. Note this is the first discussion of a possible extension to its quantitative easing since February.

- WSJ running the headline "Euro rally is preclude to a decline". The article noted that the recent rally may be little more than a "summer fling"


Looking Ahead

- 6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell CZK7.0B in 91-day Bills

- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Jul FGV Consumer Confidence: no est v 118.5 prior

- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Jun Unemployment Rate: 7.3%e v 7.5% prior

-8:30 (CA) Canada May Retail Sales M/M: 0.4%e v -2.0% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: 0.5%e v -1.2% prior

- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 445Ke v 429K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.590Me v 4.681M prior

- 9:00 (US) May RPX Composite 28-day Y/Y: No est v 2.36% prior

- 9:00 (SA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Interest Rate decision: Consensus expectations (70%) to maintain interest rates at the current 6.50% level (range of estimates from unchanged to cut 50bps (30%)

- 9:00 (HU) Hungary PM address to Parliament

- 9:30 (US) Fed Bernanke Monetary Report to House panel

- 9:30 (US) Fed's Dudley

- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada monetary report

- 10:00 (EU) Euro-Zone Jul Advanced Consumer Confidence: -17e v -17 prior

- 10:00 (US) Jun Existing Home Sales: 5.10Me v 5.66M prior

- 10:00 (US) May House Price Index M/M: -0.3%e v 0.8% prior-

- 10:00 (US) Jun Leading Indicators: -0.3%e v 0.4% prior

- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest rate Decision: Unanimous analyst expectations is for the Overnight Lending Rate to remain steady at 3.00%

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