Friday 17 July 2009

Looking for Japanese Yen to recover close to 90.00 - Commerzbank (Barcelona) - After testing three times the 91.80 strong support (July 8, 10 and 11), USD/JPY rose to post 94.45 as 1-week high, thus pair started to falls to levels close to 93.30 yesterday. Currently the pair is trading around 93.74, 0.05% above today's opening price and closing the week with 1.45% gains from 92.43, Monday opening price.

The current week is the second of six positive week since the pair traded 98.90 in the early June. On the month, USD/JPY is falling 2.60% from 96.23 July the 1st opening price.

Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank, comments the Yen to recover further and test 90.00 support in the following three weeks as pair is trading in a downchannel: "USD/JPY as suspected failed to make much impression beyond the 94.10/40 resistance and the intraday focus has shifted to nearby support. The market is currently being contained lower within the confines of a downchannel. This downchannel currently offers resistance at 97.16 and support at 91.40. The top of the channel is reinforced by its 100 day ma at 97.09 and our overall negative bias is entrenched while capped by 91.09/16. Loss of minor support at 93.00 will leave pressure back on the downside and we look for a breach of the 91.75/40 support to trigger a slide to 90.15 enroute to the 87.10 lows."

Jones expects a negative trend, taking pair to 90.15 level in the following three weeks: "Shorter term (1 - 3 weeks): Negative, target 90.15."

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